Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.126276 0.148553 0.174531 0.207292 0.247830 0.296773 3.609799e-01
2025-07-20 0.101214 0.129339 0.165687 0.216966 0.288859 0.388270 5.401419e-01
2025-07-27 0.084116 0.115422 0.159701 0.228884 0.338070 0.510797 8.203092e-01
2025-08-03 0.069990 0.102244 0.151697 0.236622 0.386821 0.658856 1.236468e+00
2025-08-10 0.057105 0.087986 0.138753 0.233599 0.419952 0.804545 1.775910e+00
2025-08-17 0.046236 0.074533 0.123930 0.223356 0.438414 0.941003 2.453543e+00
2025-08-24 0.039626 0.066826 0.117274 0.226974 0.489985 1.196281 3.815643e+00
2025-08-31 0.034302 0.060274 0.111220 0.230414 0.546492 1.525144 6.093792e+00
2025-09-07 0.030098 0.054946 0.106323 0.235314 0.613477 1.971848 1.019907e+01
2025-09-14 0.026626 0.050345 0.101852 0.240159 0.687684 2.561584 1.779456e+01
2025-09-21 0.023162 0.045069 0.094607 0.235374 0.731604 3.120501 2.919077e+01
2025-09-28 0.018836 0.037176 0.079493 0.203235 0.659184 3.024117 3.360393e+01
2025-10-05 0.016802 0.034131 0.075795 0.205077 0.728253 3.925845 6.614410e+01
2025-10-12 0.015388 0.032228 0.074550 0.214699 0.845326 5.537622 1.668597e+02
2025-10-19 0.014212 0.030665 0.073851 0.226530 0.993749 8.098055 5.364955e+02
2025-10-26 0.013033 0.028870 0.072084 0.234228 1.138326 11.578691 2.121414e+03
2025-11-02 0.011715 0.026481 0.068000 0.231288 1.222198 15.083325 8.922619e+03
2025-11-09 0.010410 0.023899 0.062729 0.221203 1.250967 18.216784 4.231613e+04
2025-11-16 0.009590 0.022474 0.060727 0.224809 1.396402 25.934253 1.912543e+06
2025-11-23 0.008864 0.021177 0.058823 0.228235 1.556542 37.527048 NaN
2025-11-30 0.008245 0.020075 0.057306 0.233101 1.751333 56.586576 NaN
2025-12-07 0.007692 0.019066 0.055867 0.237908 1.969456 87.609164 NaN
2025-12-14 0.007062 0.017730 0.052944 0.233193 2.077097 120.044345 NaN